OKLAHOMA CITY (KOKH) — After a week that started with drought, record high temperatures, multiple wildfires, we ended the week with nice conditions for Halloween and Friday. Unfortunately, it\’s once again busy going into the weekend and early next with a prolonged period of showers and storms. While all the rain will put a huge dent in the drought conditions, we could not only see too much rain this weekend, but we could also see more severe weather. Our confidence is high on the heavy rain, but not as high on the severe weather side. We hope to explain why in the article below. From a big picture standpoint, we\’ve got a nice setup for multiple days of heavy rain. A surface low to our north will direct the flow in from the southwest Saturday. That general setup doesn\’t really change much for Sunday, so the flow will remain from the southwest for more rounds of showers and storms. By Monday, another surface low develops and will swing its cold front through. This will mark the end of the rain and bring in cooler and drier conditions for Tuesday. Because of all the rain showers coming in from the southwest and generally following the I-44 corridor, we could be looking at flooding issues on Saturday. The flooding problem would then get worse on Sunday due to even more rain on Sunday on top of already saturated conditions from Saturday. We could even expect the flooding threat to continue into Monday morning for our area. With multiple rounds of rain and storms, Flood Watches are already posted for much of the area until 6:00 PM Monday. By the time the low moves out of the area Monday, we could easily be looking at 2-5\” of rain if not even closer to 7\” in many spots across the state! Even if the numbers don\’t get this high, we still expect many rounds of good soaking rain to fall across a majority of the state. This is why we could be dealing with all these flooding issues even if we are in a drought! The heavy rain was the easy part of the forecast. The hard part is the chances for severe weather. Looking at the large-scale features like the jet stream orientation, it has the big trough to the west and large ridge to the east that we need for severe weather in the Central US. We also have some instability as well as shear to work with Saturday through Monday. Comparing Saturday to Sunday, Sunday does appear to have more shear and instability to work with, but there are some limiting factors to the severe weather that will bring the chances down. We\’ll go through the days below. Saturday has a large Marginal Risk for severe weather with an area of Slight Risk in southwest Oklahoma. While all modes are possible, we would likely be most concerned with the wind threat by the afternoon and evening. What will be a common theme this weekend in regard to the chances of severe weather will be the coverage of the storms. We have the fuel and setup for severe storms, but if we just have too many showers and storms, then they are all competing for that energy and can\’t really get too strong. A few days ago we thought this would be the case, but now models are converging on the idea that the storms will hold off until later in the afternoon and form into a squall line. The below models show this example and would favor the wind threat for severe weather. You can still see throughout the day on Saturday that there could be a lot of storms out there. Again, the more storms, the less likely the chance will be for severe weather. Sunday\’s Slight Risk covers all of our viewing area for all modes of severe weather. As shown earlier, there\’s more shear and instability to work with, so our severe weather threat would be more widespread Sunday compared to Saturday. But also like Saturday, if we have constant scattered showers and storms throughout the day, then the severe issues will be lower. The problem is, our models are showing a nice break in the storms from the morning to the ones in the afternoon and evening that would be the severe ones. Showers and storms will be ongoing throughout the morning Sunday, but then by late morning and early afternoon, the break in the storms happens. This could be enough time to re-energize the atmosphere by the afternoon and evening to support more severe storms. These showers and storms from Sunday will continue overnight into the morning hours Monday. Monday is the day that the low will sweep everything out of the area. While more additional severe storms are possible, we think this will be mostly to our east. The best chance for our area looks to be in the morning and early afternoon. As you can tell, there are a lot of questions surrounding the severe weather part of the forecast, but that there are also many chances for rain! Turn around and don\’t drown this weekend and just know that whether we have severe weather or not, that we need the rain! Stay up to date and download the Fox 25 Weather App! We\’ve got your back!